BowerGroupAsia wrote an update to clients on Bangladesh’s upcoming elections.

Context

  • Bangladesh’s general election for the country’s new Parliament will take place February 12. The elections follow in the wake of a people’s uprising in August 2024, which dislodged the government of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who ruled for 15 years in an autocratic manner. The polls are critically important because they will return the rights of people to vote after missing three elections, in which ballots could not be cast. Citizens are eagerly waiting to cast their votes to elect representatives who will steer Bangladesh in a new direction. This election sits at a turning point in Bangladesh’s history and with an importance unlike any previous election.
  • A referendum will take place at the same time, adding another unique feature to the electoral process. The referendum proposes reforms to bring balance among state institutions — the legislature, executive and judiciary — and improve accountably in governance, which has been a key vulnerability for Bangladesh during its 54 years of independence. If the proposals for reform are approved by voters, the new initiatives could usher Bangladesh into a new era of accountable governance.
  • If the referendum is passed, the newly elected Parliament will act as the Constituent Assembly during the first 180 days to effect the changes in the constitution agreed in the July Charter in 2024 after the ouster of the previous government.

Significance

  • A total of 1,981 candidates will contest the elections in 298 out of 300 constituencies across the country. According to the Election Commission (EC), these candidates were nominated by 51 registered political parties. Another 249 independent candidates are in the race. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the largest party, has fielded 288 candidates in the same number of constituencies. Islamic Andolan Bangladesh has nominated candidates for 253 seats, while Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) will contest in 224 constituencies. More than a dozen other mostly smaller parties have nominated candidates to run in many constituencies.
  • The former ruling Awami League and some of its allies will not be able to participate, because their activities were suspended due to their involvement in the crimes against humanity during 2024 mass uprising. After the allocation of symbols to the political parties January 22, full scale campaigning has begun throughout the country.
  • The main contest will take place between the BNP and the BJI and the allies. Both of them have significantly different perspectives on how Bangladesh will be governed in the future.
    • The BNP, a center-right political party, has been in power twice, once in early 1990s and again in the early 2000s, and it generally follows a nationalist line with a touch of religion. Now it is trying to position itself as a centrist party and aligned with the spirit of the 1971 Liberation War, which brought Bangladesh independence. The party aims to appeal to left-of-center voters.
    • The BJI, on the other hand, is known for its right-wing Islamic credentials. It is trying to position itself as the vanguard of the July uprising and a viable alternative to established political parties, such as Awami League and BNP, both of which have questionable governance records. Analysts believe that a better organized BJI is poised to make a much better showing in the next elections.
    • Another Islamic party with a large following, the Islami Andolan Bangladesh, could derail these plans with their candidates fighting against BJI candidates in many constituencies. Other parties could also exploit opportunities against the BJI. Nonetheless, it seems clear that the BJI has been able to firmly place itself in the political landscape of Bangladesh. Regardless of the outcome of elections, BJI’s strong grounding could help it influence the political process beyond the February elections. However, the election outcome will be decided by women and youth voters, who make up 30 percent and 50 percent of the electorate, respectively.

Implications

  • The elections are an important step for Bangladesh on its democratic journey, but the outcome could also have some geopolitical impact. Ongoing tension between the United States and China became apparent when Beijing protested the remarks of the new U.S. ambassador about Chinese relations with Bangladesh.
  • The Bangladesh-India relationship is still frayed, but observers see Indian support for the upcoming elections in a positive light, although recent Indian leniency shown to Sheikh Hasina to use public platforms to air her views evoked some strong reactions in Dhaka. Contrary to past elections, India has little opportunity to influence the outcome this time, but it has nonetheless been dropping subtle hints of its positive disposition toward BNP through some of its recent initiatives. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar attendance at the funeral of late Begum Khaleda Zia and his meeting with BNP leader Tarek Zia December 31 point to this direction.
  • The United States, the United Nations, the European Union (EU), China, Japan and other partners have extended their support for a peaceful, free and fair election in Bangladesh. The EU has agreed to send an election observer group to monitor the electoral process. Yet, whichever coalition wins the election will have to work within two established baselines. One is the baseline articulated by the July uprising against any foreign domination, and the other is shaped by Bangladesh’s graduation from least developed country status later this year. Bangladesh will need all the support it can gather from all its development partners, including its neighbors. In an uncertain world, any government in Bangladesh will need to be creative and agile amid the current global turmoil.f the election:
    • The interim government will have critical role to play in ensuring a peaceful environment for holding a successful election. So far, it seems that the government under Yunus is committed to holding a free and fair election in a peaceful environment. Despite some weaknesses within the police, the armed forces will extend its full support toward a peaceful election.
    • The constructive role of political parties is another key to the success of the upcoming election and referendum.
    • The role of the international community, including the United States, European Union, China, the United Nations and India, will be critical for the success of the election. Many have already agreed to send election observers.
    • A couple of contingencies could throw the BNP into disarray. The first would be the death of Begum Khaleda Zia, the BNP chairperson. She has been in the hospital for about a month and is in critical condition. The second would be a delay in the arrival of acting BNP chairperson Tarek Zia, who is exile in London but is scheduled to arrive in Dhaka December 25.
  • Although all stakeholders, including the interim government, EC, law enforcement agencies, political parties and voters are eagerly looking forward to an election after many years, a few challenges could still derail the process.
  • The tenuous legal and security situation is a concern and may worsen in the midst of electoral tensions. An early sign of this came in recent days when a local leader was killed in northwestern Bangladesh in a clash between the BNP and the BJI. Maintaining a peaceful environment is the number one challenge for the government and the EC.
  • The deposed former Prime Minister Hasina, who is in India, has called for a boycott of the upcoming elections, and there are fears that her people from the Awami League may try to disrupt the electoral process, because they have no stake in this election. The leadership of the interim government will be critical in steering the process peacefully in the coming days.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Bangladesh as they occur. If you have any questions or comments, please contact BGA Head of Research Murray Hiebert at mhiebert@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BowerGroupAsia

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Head of Research

Murray is a top Asia expert and skilled researcher with three decades of experience living and working in Asia. His networks in business, media and government circles are deep and wide-ranging. He is also a senior associate of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Earlier he served as deputy director of the program for six years. Prior to joining CSIS, Murray served for five years as senior director for Southeast Asia at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce where he worked with leading American companies, the U.S. government and Southeast Asian ... Read More