The BGA India team, led by Managing Director Anuj Gupta, wrote an update to clients on India’s export surge.

Context

  • India’s export performance in 2025 has demonstrated notable strength, reaching a 10-year high even amid significant global trade headwinds. The cumulative exports of merchandise and services from April-November 2025 reached $562.1 billion, up 5.4 percent year on year, while in November alone exports grew 15.5 percent compared with November 2024. Merchandise exports rose 2.6 percent, and non-petroleum exports increased 5.9 percent, reflecting broad-based resilience across key sectors. The services trade surplus has also expanded, further supporting overall export growth.
  • Growth has been driven by high-value and diversified commodities. Engineering goods (23.8 percent), electronic goods (38.9 percent), gems and jewelry (27.8 percent), drugs and pharmaceuticals (20.9 percent) and petroleum products (11.6 percent) were key contributors to export expansion in November. The narrow trade deficit in November, due in part to reduced imports, suggests that both export performance and import moderation are helping rebalance trade pressures.

Significance

  • Exports to critical markets such as China, Spain, the United Arab Emirates and Tanzania have recorded positive growth in the latest period. Industry commentary and data indicate that Indian exporters are increasingly diversifying destinations and adjusting to tariff disruptions by strengthening ties in the European Union, Middle Eastern and Asian markets.
  • This performance is particularly striking given persistent trade headwinds, most notably the U.S. imposition of tariffs of up to 50 percent on Indian goods — one of the highest tariff regimes faced by any of India’s trading partners. Nevertheless, certain export categories and destinations have shown accelerated growth, underscoring structural strengths in India’s external sector.

Implications

  • Improving the trade balance strengthens the macro backdrop for business. The narrowing trade deficit, supported by sustained export growth and import moderation, is strengthening India’s external vulnerability profile. Combined with a strong services surplus and low inflation, around 0.7 percent as of November, strengthens India’s macro stability. For global firms and value chains, this environment reinforces India’s position as an increasingly reliable, cost-efficient and competitive node in global manufacturing and supply chain networks.
  • Looking ahead, the ongoing negotiations of a U.S.-India Bilateral Trade Agreement and an India-EU Free Trade Agreement are expected to boost trade. This will complement India’s strong macroeconomic backdrop of 8.2 percent GDP growth and low inflation, which continue to enhance the country’s attractiveness as an investment destination.

If you have questions or comments, please contact BGA India Managing Director Anuj Gupta at agupta@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA India Team

A small ginko leaf

Managing Director

Anuj is a distinguished policy leader and strategist who has played a catalytic role across India’s government and private sector, guiding stakeholders through the country’s complex and evolving policy and investment landscape. As BGA’s India practice leader, he helps clients leverage the country’s rapid economic growth to advance their goals and strategies.  Anuj previously led public policy efforts for the Tata Group, India’s largest business conglomerate, where he advised more than 30 group companies on policy affairs strategy. His interventions directly influenced high-stakes outcomes across diverse sectors, including technology, finance and manufacturing.   Anuj spent a decade in the Indian and Abu Dhabi governments, where he ... Read More