The BGA Philippines team, led by Managing Director Victor Andres Manhit, wrote an update to clients on the Philippines’ new business and consumer expectations surveys.

Context

  • The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas released the business and consumer expectations surveys for the second quarter of 2025. The surveys assess business and consumer confidence in the Philippine economy and highlight key challenges and risks they perceive in addition to the factors influencing their overall sentiment and expectations.

Significance

  • Business confidence in the Philippines was less optimistic in the second quarter, with the confidence index (CI) dropping to 28.8 percent from 31.2 percent in the first quarter. Firms cited concerns about the potential economic impact of a 17 percent reciprocal tariff on Philippine exports to the United States — temporarily paused and reverted to 10 percent — and expectations of lower demand following the midterm elections and the off-season for sugar milling.
  • On the other hand, consumer sentiment in the second quarter was more pessimistic, with the overall CI declining to -14 percent from -13 percent in the previous quarter. The weaker confidence among consumers was attributed to concerns about higher inflation, lower household income and fewer available jobs. Uncertainties about the delivery of government services amid heightened political tensions were also causes for concern.

Implications

  • For businesses, these findings can serve as a basis for planning, investment decisions and risk management, especially amid uncertainties in global trade and domestic political developments. The consumer outlook provides insight into the situation on the ground, which may directly affect business activity and demand across sectors, especially given that consumer spending is a major contributor to the Philippine economy. Now that the May midterm elections have concluded, the government is expected to refocus its efforts on addressing key economic issues such as inflation and joblessness.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in the Philippines as they occur. If you have any comments or questions, please contact BGA Philippines Managing Director Victor Andres Manhit at vmanhit@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA Philippines Team

A small ginko leaf

Managing Director

Dindo is recognized as one of Manila’s most well-connected and savvy advisors on developments in government and business in the Philippines. Concurrent to his role as managing director for BGA’s operations in the Philippines, he is also the founder and managing director of the Stratbase Group and president of its policy think tank, the Albert del Rosario Institute for Strategic and International Studies. Since 1991, Dindo has served as a member of the faculty and is the former chair of the Political Science Department and a senior fellow of the La Salle Institute of Governance at the De La Salle ... Read More