BGA Senior Adviser Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak wrote an update to clients on Thailand’s heightened political risk after the Consitutional Court’s suspension of Paetongtarn Shinawatra from the premiership.

Context

  • The Constitutional Court’s suspension of Paetongtarn Shinawatra from the premiership heightens Thailand’s political risk and policy performance markedly. Our two earlier updates — “Border Dispute Prompts Political Turmoil” of June 22 (password: F2MOzJt1Dp5N) and “Thailand Confronts Budget Drama, Cambodia Border Storm” of June 9 (password: S20BT7aLwK5n) — noted how the Thai-Cambodian border dispute and subsequent audio clip in which Paetongtarn compromised her position by kowtowing to Cambodia’s former Prime Minister and Senate President Hun Sen became a full-blown crisis in Thailand. The controversial phone conversation also became the basis for 36 senators to file an ethical misconduct charge against her. The court’s suspension allows a 15-day window for Paetongtarn to mount a defense before a final verdict of ejection or exoneration is issued. While this latest twist further compounds and complicates Thailand’s political drama, it is instructive to focus on both the nitty-gritty and the nuts and bolts.
  • On the cut and thrust, Paetongtarn’s premiership suspension comes with a cabinet lifeline. Her cabinet reshuffle, with Paetongtarn doubling as culture minister, was granted royal endorsement just hours before the Constitutional Court’s decision. As a result, she will still be able to join and maintain influence in cabinet meetings. However, the government has a thin and vulnerable majority of 261-234, which gives junior coalition partners undue leverage and undermines the ruling Pheu Thai’s grip on policymaking levers. After its withdrawal from the government following Hun Sen’s secretive and leaked audio recording against Paetongtarn, Bhumjaithai — the third-largest party — is poised to make a lot of anti-government noise in Parliament, starting with a no-confidence motion as soon as the National Assembly reconvenes July 3.

Significance

  • Even the acting prime minister is in question. While Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Phumtham Wechayachai is designated to take up the position of acting prime minister, his and other new cabinet members’ royal audience is expected to take place July 3. In the few days in between, the temporary acting premiership falls to Deputy Prime Minister and Transport Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit. Such is the rickety and tentative nature of the interim government while Paetongtarn awaits her fate. Moreover, Phumtham’s ministerial move to the interior portfolio, which is in charge of provincial and local administrations crucial for national poll prospects, will leave the Defense Ministry firmly in military hands, led by Gen. Natthapol Nakphanich.
  • Accordingly, Thailand’s political environment will be precarious and volatile. The nuts and bolts of it derive from the May 2023 poll, which returned the Move Forward Party as the biggest winner with Pheu Thai as a close second. As is now clear, the “super deal” that brought Thaksin back from exile was only designed to destabilize and subsequently dissolve Move Forward; it was not about allowing Thailand to move forward under a Shinawatra-led government. Otherwise, Thaksin would not have been put on legal leashes early on and Paetongtarn would not have landed in such a political deep end today. But she could still survive politically. The increasing politicization of the Constitutional Court in the past two decades means that political motivations determine outcomes. Former Prime Minister and coup-maker Gen. Prayut Chan-ocha also faced a similar suspension but was later acquitted by the nine-member bench, although he represented the conservative establishment.

Implications

  • An appointed assembly would normally follow a military intervention. As Thai politics become murkier and governance more intractable, the prolonged limbo and ineffectual government will likely stoke conservative calls for a military takeover to put an end to the morass and volatility. The risk of such intervention has risen visibly in view of Paetongtarn’s suspension, coalition squabbling, government uncertainty, policy weakness and inertia, including on the tariff negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade team, which are scheduled to begin in the coming days, and Thailand’s budget bill for the next fiscal year from October 1.
  • Key takeaways at this stage would suggest that Paetongtarn’s days are numbered, the Shinawatra brand has lost mass appeal, Pheu Thai is consequently weaker, the opposition Prachachon Party is still a formidable force and establishment forces still call the ultimate shots. Whatever the court’s verdict on Paetongtarn, the next political showdown may already be in the making, a likely sequel of two years ago when Move Forward unexpectedly came out on top. This time, Prachachon Party may be a major beneficiary of the ongoing machinations that will intensify public demands for fundamental structural reforms.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Thailand as they occur. If you have any comments or questions, please contact BGA Thailand Managing Director Thitinan Pongsudhirak at tsiripant@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA Thailand Team

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Senior Advisor

Thitinan is a renowned scholar, journalist and expert in international relations and domestic politics across Asia. He has spent more than three decades analyzing and advising on Thailand and the region’s political economy, geopolitics and policy. He helps BGA and clients understand in-depth the global, regional and domestic issues that affect business.  Thitinan is a professor of international relations and international political economy at Bangkok-based Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies. He has lectured widely at local and international universities, military colleges and international organizations on political and ... Read More