BowerGroupAsia wrote an update to clients on Vietnam’s new leaders.

Context

  • The Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam held an extraordinary meeting on August 16 to elect new members of the Politburo, the Secretariat of the party and the government Cabinet. This development represents continuity of the power consolidation and transition under the party’s new leadership.
  • Following the meeting, Vietnam’s media announced the election of one new member to the Politburo and three new members to the Secretariat. Col. Gen. Luong Tam Quang, minister of public security, was elected to the Politburo. Col. Gen. Nguyen Duy Ngoc, chief of the party’s office and former vice minister of public security; Col. Gen.Trinh Van Quyet, chief of the General Political Department of the Vietnam People’s Army; and Le Minh Tri, chief prosecutor to the party’s Secretariat, were elected to the Secretariat.

Significance

  • Col. Gen. Luong Tam Quang has become the 15th member of the Politburo, Vietnam’s most powerful and influential political organ. His political rise has long been associated with the Ministry of Public Security, where he held several senior positions including vice minister (2019-2024) and chief of the Investigation Agency (2021-2024), chief of the office and spokesperson of the ministry (2017-2019). Quang is known for his contributions into investigations of corruption cases under the then Gen. To Lam’s leadership, which removed hundreds of officials including those in the top leadership positions of the party and the government. Quang was promoted to minister of public security in June after former Minister Lam became president. Quang’s promotion was considered unconventional because in the past only an existing Politburo member could be appointed to the position. Thus, two weeks after Lam became general secretary of the party, Quang was elected to the Politburo, completing the process of his promotion. At the age of 59, Quang will potentially be re-elected to the Politburo and the minister position in the next political term (2021-2026) and further promoted to one of the top four leadership positions in Vietnam’s politics in the future. Quang is a native of Hung Yen province, the home province of General Secretary Lam.
  • Col. Gen. Nguyen Duy Ngoc was named a new member of the Secretariat, the second most influential organ after the Politburo in the party which supervises the implementation of the party’s policies and makes important decisions, including about certain personnel of the party, the National Assembly and the administration. Ngoc built his political career in the Ministry of Public Security, where he held senior positions such as vice minister (2019-2023), deputy chief of the Investigation Agency and chief of the Department on Investigation of Corruption, Economic and Smuggling Crimes (2018-2019), and deputy chief of the Police Department (2016-2018). Previously, Ngoc worked for Hanoi Police Department, where he was the deputy general director and chief of investigation (2014-2016). Ngoc is also known for his leadership of investigations into corruption cases in the past five years. Ngoc also comes from Hung Yen province, the same province as Minister Quang and General Secretary Lam. At the age of 60 and with the support from his former colleagues, he will potentially be promoted further in the party.
  • The appointment of Gen. Trinh Van Quyet, the chief of the general political department of the People’s Army is considered as a preparatory step for his further promotion. Given the importance of the military, it is common in Vietnam’s politics that there are two military generals in the Politburo and Secretariat. These normally are the minister of defense and the chief of the general political department of the People’s Army. The promotion of Gen. Luong Cuong, Quyet’s predecessor, as the permanent member of the Secretariat and potentially to the presidency, has determined the political path for Quyet.

Implications

  • There have been rumors that there will be a number of changes to the cabinet as follows:
    • Deputy Prime Minister Tran Luu Quang will be promoted to the Politburo and chairman of the Central Economic Committee.
    • Chief Justice Nguyen Hoa Binh will become the standing deputy prime minister.
    • Minister of Finance Ho Duc Phoc will be promoted to deputy prime minister overseeing finance, banking and investment sector.
    • Minister of Foreign Affair Bui Thanh Son will be promoted to deputy prime minister overseeing foreign affairs.
    • Chief Prosecutor Le Minh Tri will become the chief justice.
    • The provincial party chiefs of Hung Yen, Yen Bai and Khanh Hoa provinces will be moved to Hanoi to take the positions of minister of finance, minister of natural resources and environment, and minister of justice.
  • None of the above positions were confirmed. The fact that the party’s office has not announced their nominations implies that there may be controversies about their appointments and these candidates may have not passed the Central Committee’s consideration.
  • Nevertheless, the above-listed appointments signal potential stability in Vietnam’s political climate ahead of the upcoming Communist Party congress in 2026, increasing predictability of the candidacy for top leadership positions in the next political term.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Myanmar as they occur. If you have any questions or comments, please contact BGA Head of Research Murray Hiebert at mhiebert@bowergroupasia.com.

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BowerGroupAsia

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