The BGA Korea Team, led by Managing Director B.J. Kim, wrote an update to clients on Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment.

Context

  • Korea’s 300-member National Assembly passed a motion to impeach President Yoon December 14, with 204 in favor, 85 against and 8 invalid votes. Yoon is now suspended from office. This comes less than two weeks after the president declared martial law, only to have the National Assembly reverse his decision within hours.
  • The first round of voting held December 7 fell short of the required quorum because Yoon’s ruling People Power Party boycotted the vote. However, the motion was passed during the second round of voting on December 14 after lawmakers from the People Power Party joined in support of removing Yoon from office. The process attracted intense public interest in the 11 days leading up to the passage of the impeachment bill as citizens gathered in large numbers at rallies in front of the National Assembly. With the people’s support, the lawmakers carried out the impeachment process peacefully, adhering to constitutional procedures.

Significance

  • The Constitutional Court will uphold or reject the National Assembly’s decision sometime within the next six months. The court took two and three months, respectively, to complete its review of Korea’s last two impeachment motions. If the court upholds this impeachment, Yoon will be removed from office immediately, and a new presidential election will be held two months from the court’s decision.
  • Korea could have a new government as early as mid-March, even though many watchers consider May to be more realistic. For now, Lee Jae-myung, the head of the Democratic Party, is a likely candidate in the next presidential race.

Implications

  • Yoon’s impeachment reduces a considerable amount of political uncertainty. Maintaining national stability will remain the government’s immediate priority in the next few months. The expected change of administration will not cause major shifts in economic or foreign policy. The Constitutional Court will take a few months to review the impeachment and issue its final ruling. In the meantime, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has assumed the role of acting president.
  • Lee expects a criminal appeals court ruling for an alleged election law violation to come down in February or March. Legal experts believe a guilty verdict is likely, in which case Lee would not be able to run in the next presidential election, and the race would become an open competition between relative newcomers.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Korea as they occur. If you have any comments or questions, please contact BGA Korea Managing Director B.J. Kim at bjkim@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA Korea Team

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Managing Director

B.J. supports BGA clients on the ground in Korea, advising them on stakeholder engagement and larger government affairs and public policy matters in Seoul. A former Korean diplomat, B.J. has advised international firms on political-economic and policy-regulatory affairs since 2003, offering monitoring and analytical services on legislative, regulatory and political issues. He also has offered companies hands-on support in their engagement in Korea. Prior to his career in consulting, B.J. was a diplomat serving two of Korea’s trade ministers as policy counselor and special assistant, developing international economic policies and public communications strategies on export and investment promotion. He has ... Read More