BGA Political & Economic Forecast
Indo-Pacific & Africa
A message from Ernie Bower, President and CEO, BGA
Dear Colleagues,
We enter the second half of 2026 in a world defined by rupture and recalibration. The Iran war and sustained disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a global energy shock that is reverberating across every major market, supply chain and capital allocation decision — from Japan and Korea, where import dependence is acute, to India and Southeast Asia, where growth models are being stress-tested. Oil, liquefied natural gas supply and shipping volatility are no longer episodic risks; they are structuring inflation, compressing margins and forcing governments to intervene in ways that will shape markets for years to come.
This is not simply another geopolitical crisis layered on top of existing tensions. It is a catalyst accelerating the transition to a more fragmented, security-driven global system. Energy security, food security, industrial policy and national resilience have become inseparable across markets as diverse as Indonesia, Nigeria and Australia.
Businesses and countries, particularly those in countries other than China and the United States, the two main drivers of the complexity, are struggling to adapt. Nearly every entity, both commercial and sovereign …
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Best regards,
Ernest Z. Bower, IV
President and CEO, BowerGroupAsia
