The BGA Thailand team, led by Managing Director Teerasak “Art” Siripant, wrote an update to clients regarding Thailand’s post-election political landscape.

Context

  • Thailand has come full circle with an unexpected right turn towards royalism and nationalism away from reform and change. After 26 years of volatility and turmoil, the royalist-conservative establishment behind the Bhumjaithai Party has finally won a decisive election victory over the reformist and poll-leading People’s Party. With political stability assured, the onus is on Bhumjaithai under Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul to address economic doldrums and mend Thailand’s deep divide.
  • If growth thins further below 2 percent per year while graft thickens, an anti-establishment backlash could bring about a reckoning between the old guard and the new generations clamoring for a better future. Thailand in the medium term is poised to enjoy establishment-backed political stability and continuity with a clear electoral mandate for the first time in 20 years.

Significance

  • More than doubling its seats from 2023 with 193 of the 500-member assembly, Bhumjaithai is set to lead a coalition government that serves establishment interests. In addition to Anutin’s nationalist fervor with perceived palace backing, Bhumjaithai also campaigned on technocratic professionalism behind Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun, Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas and Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow. To what extent these technocrats are given a free hand and how many old-style patronage-driven politicians occupy the new cabinet will determine its ability to boost growth and limit graft.

Implications

  • Evidently, Thai voters got tired of two decades of political tumult and turmoil and wanted to give stability and the status quo a chance. Yet the electorate also passed a referendum to draft a new constitution to replace the 2017 charter from the military era in search of near-term solutions and longer-term structural change at the same time. As the main opposition party once again, the People’s Party can regroup and regain momentum in the event of government missteps.
  • The Bhumjaithai-led coalition government now has a clear pathway to govern a full term under high expectations. If it succeeds in boosting growth and delivering and catering to popular grievances and demands, the newly elected government could bridge the longstanding polarization and divisions in Thai socio-political order. But if establishment forces behind Anutin cannot deliver better livelihoods and a more promising future amid an adverse global economic environment and lack of economic competitiveness at home, the poll result from February 8 may well become a temporary victory.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Thailand. If you have any comments or questions, please contact BGA Managing Director Teerasak “Art” Siripant at tsiripant@bowergroupasia.com or BGA Thailand Senior Adviser Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak at thitinan@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA Thailand Team

A small ginko leaf

Senior Advisor

Thitinan is a renowned scholar, journalist and expert in international relations and domestic politics across Asia. He has spent more than three decades analyzing and advising on Thailand and the region’s political economy, geopolitics and policy. He helps BGA and clients understand in-depth the global, regional and domestic issues that affect business.  Thitinan is a professor of international relations and international political economy at Bangkok-based Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies. He has lectured widely at local and international universities, military colleges and international organizations on political and ... Read More