BGA Senior Adviser Thitinan Pongsudhirak wrote an update to clients on Thailand’s upcoming general election and what it means for businesses.

 Context

  • After two decades, Pheu Thai has won the populist campaign Thaksin launched in the late 1990s, thereby opening up the Thai political system by catering to the poor and addressing economic inequality and the urban-rural divide.
  • In a straightforward election, Pheu Thai and Move Forward should be able to form a coalition government because both have topped various polls and are on course to combine for more than half of the elected lower house of Parliament.

Significance

  • Although more than five dozen parties are battling for the 500-seat lower house, only a clutch of them will nab the lion’s share. These are lined up between the coalition government — mainly the Palang Pracharat, United Thai Nation, Bhumjaithai and Democrat parties — and the opposition Pheu Thai and Move Forward.
  • Unless vote results are clear and unassailable, the post-poll government formation process could be drawn out and stuck in deadlock, whereby Prayut (the current prime minister) would remain in charge in the interim.

Implications

  • This election will either see Thailand settle deeper into a long-term conservative-royalist bureaucratic state or perk up up with a qualitatively different government that could move the country forward again.
  • Confidence among consumers and investors alike would pick up palpably with a newly formed government, in which the emphasis will likely move from security to growth and prosperity, with an eye to enlarge the economic pie.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Thailand as they occur. If you have any comments or questions, please contact BGA Thailand Managing Director Teerasak Siripant at tsiripant@bowergroupasia.com.

A small ginko leaf

Managing Director

Art is an intuitive leader with a strong set of relationships with Thailand’s government, business, media and civil society leaders. His network spans a diverse set of stakeholders, from farmers in rural Thailand to the top echelons of Thailand’s political leadership. Prior to joining BGA, Art spent a decade serving as the chief political advisor to the Australian ambassador to Thailand. In this role, he had a front row seat to the most significant political and economic developments in Thailand. Earlier, he served as an army intelligence officer in the Royal Thai Armed Forces. Art has played a central role ... Read More