The BGA Pakistan Team, led by Senior Advisor Aniq Zafar, wrote an update to clients on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout to Pakistan amid the fallout from the country’s devastating monsoon floods.

Context

  • The IMF approved the extension of Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program on September 5, staving off a potential economic default. Following several months of negotiations, the IMF authorized the immediate disbursement of $1.2 billion and increased Pakistan’s total funding to $6.5 billion until June 2023.
  • Monsoon floods have destroyed livelihoods and infrastructure and are expected to result in over $10 billion in economic damage.

Significance

  • The revival of Pakistan’s bailout package is expected to help avoid a debt default as the country deals with an economic crunch made worse by devastating floods that killed about 1,300 people in the past weeks. Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority estimates that 2 million acres of crops and orchards have been impacted, with agriculture among the most affected sectors.
  • Since the IMF approval, the Pakistani rupee has appreciated by 1.5 percent in the interbank market, with the U.S. dollar declining by PKR 3.32. However, currency markets and stocks continue to show instability and wild swings, and the Finance Ministry’s initial assessment of economic losses from the flooding suggests the inflation rate could accelerate to 26 percent.

Implications

  • Companies should continue to monitor Pakistan’s balance of payments, prepare for business disruptions from the flooding and have emergency plans in place. Monsoon flooding led to internet connectivity issues, rising food prices and need for over-the-counter medications.
  • Pakistan’s debt crisis to be far from over as debt obligations are significant, inflation remains high and foreign exchange reserves are low. Curbing spending could be challenging as Pakistan struggles to repair infrastructure and provide social support to impacted families.

BGA will continue to keep you updated on developments in the Pakistan as they occur. If you have any comments or questions, please contact BGA Pakistan Senior Advisor Aniq Zafar at azafar@bowergroupasia.com.

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Senior Advisor

Aniq is one of Pakistan’s most experienced business and public relations advisors, maintaining networks throughout the country’s public and private sectors, civil society and diplomatic circles. As a former journalist, Aniq also has strong relationships in the vibrant and rapidly expanding domestic media environment. Prior to joining BGA, Aniq worked with global clients across sectors on developing communication strategies, crisis communication, understanding regulatory frameworks and political risk assessment. He advised multinational clients from sectors including telecommunications, fast moving consumer goods, tobacco, agriculture, infrastructure, airlines and energy, as well as international development organizations. In the public sector, Aniq advised Pakistan’s Federal ... Read More