The BGA Malaysia team, led by Senior Director Sadiq Nor Azlan, wrote an update on the upcoming Sabah state elections in November.

Context

  • Malaysia’s Election Commission announced October 16 that the state of Sabah will hold its state election November 29. This follows the announcement of the dissolution of the Sabah Legislative Assembly by Sabah Chief Minister Hajiji Noor October 6. All 73 state seats will be contested through a first-past-the-post election system.
  • This election is a key barometer to measure public support for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s unity government. The contest centers on three dynamics:
    • The incumbent Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition under Hajiji looks to defend its incumbency while managing component party fractures.
    • Parti Warisan Sabah (WARISAN) and allied opposition parties seek to reclaim power using localist slogans such as “Sabah for Sabahans.”
    • National coalitions and parties, including the Barisan Nasional coalition and the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the Pakatan Harapan coalition and the opposition Perikatan Nasional coalition, seek to assert or defend influence in the state.

Significance

  • Three Likely Outcomes of the State Election
    • GRS hangs on with a narrow majority and maintains status quo: GRS will receive a renewed mandate to implement policies with the backing of the federal government. This is the preferred outcome for the current federal government because it would strengthen Anwar’s legitimacy and position.
    • WARISAN wins, forming the state government: WARISAN will bargain for stronger state autonomy from the federal government. This will severely weaken Sabah’s support for the federal unity government and see renewed calls from other partner parties to explore possibilities of challenging Anwar’s leadership.
    • The election results in a hung assembly: Without a clear winner, small parties and independent candidates will play kingmaker to decide who forms the state government, thus raising bargaining stakes at both state and federal levels. A historically common outcome for Sabah, this scenario would likely favor WARISAN.
  • Sabah contributes 25 members of Parliament to the 222-member federal House of Representatives. A strong showing by GRS will likely maintain alignment with the federal unity government and shore up the federal coalition’s stability. Conversely, losses by GRS in favor of the alternatives (Barisan Nasional, WARISAN or Perikatan Nasional) would complicate the federal government’s composition and bargaining dynamics in Parliament.

Implications

  • The coalition that forms the state government will have a renewed mandate to press the federal government on honoring the Malaysia Agreement as well as increasing funding for Sabah infrastructure. The momentum for implementing the Malaysia Agreement has been steadily building over the past few years. Most recently on October 17, the High Court ruled that the federal government had failed to fulfil Sabah’s right to 40 percent of federal revenue derived from the state for nearly 50 years. In response to the court decision, Anwar clarified that the federal government was not “siphoning off” Sabah’s revenue but stressed that the federal government will consult the attorney general before deciding the next course of action.
  • The Sabah state election will serve as an early forecasting indicator ahead of the next general election, which must be held by 2028. A swing against the incumbent GRS and Pakatan Harapan partnership at the state level would bolster the federal government’s momentum. National parties will treat Sabah as a testing ground for voter messaging, coalition discipline and candidate selection.
  • The federal government has strengthened its initiatives in Sabah in the past few weeks. Under the recently tabled 2026 budget, the federal government will allocate MYR 765 million ($180.9 million) for the construction of the Southern Link power line, which is expected to have a significant impact on the energy system in the state. The government also allocated MYR 220 million ($52 million) for the repair of infrastructure damaged by natural disasters and another MYR 600 million ($141.9 million) for a special interim grant.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Malaysia as they occur. If you have any questions or comments, please contact BGA Malaysia Senior Director Sadiq Nor Azlan at msadiq@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA Malaysia Team

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Senior Director

Sadiq brings his deep understanding of political dynamics and ability to recognize key government stakeholders to his role as director for BGA Malaysia. Sadiq joined BGA in mid-2019, after serving as special officer to the minister of finance under two different administrations. In addition to advising on topics ranging from the country’s annual budget, legislative procedures, subsidy rationalization and election campaigns, he managed engagement with other ministries, private and public agencies, government-linked companies and multinational corporations, foreign leaders, business chambers, media personnel and politicians. Sadiq obtained his bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Massachusetts Amherst. He spent over ... Read More