BGA China Adviser Eric Wang and Account Manager Sam Overholt wrote an update to clients on China’s fourth plenum.

Context

  • The fourth plenum of the 20th Chinese Communist Party Central Committee met in Beijing from October 20-23 and adopted its communique October 23. In the communique, the Central Committee included the Recommendations for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development (15th FYP) to set parameters for planning China’s development in the next five-year plan from 2026-2030. These goals include placing high-quality development at the center, integrating development and security, raising total factor productivity, maintaining stable export markets and industrial competitiveness and restructuring commercial real estate and local-government debt while safeguarding growth and employment.
  • The communique sets a first path anchored in the real economy. It calls for keeping the focus on advanced manufacturing as the centerpiece of a modern industrial system, with smart and green upgrades and stronger diffusion of industrial software, next-generation digital technology and power electronics. Medium-term growth should be framed at about 4.5-5 percent annually, backed by substantial human capital — around 240 million people with higher education, about 14 years of schooling for new labor-market entrants and more than 7 million research and development personnel — positioned to lift productivity across legacy and emerging sectors.
  • The State Council and National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) will prepare the full FYP outline and submit it to the National People’s Congress at the “two sessions” (the annual meetings of the National People’s Congress and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference) in March 2026 for review and approval, at which point it becomes the authoritative plan text. This sequence preserves continuity with prior objectives while sharpening the emphasis on productivity, resilience and green and social outcomes through 2030 and toward the 2035 benchmarks.

Significance

  • The communique makes high-quality development the central theme and places reform and innovation at the forefront, focusing on people’s needs. It signals a shift to results by weighing programs on productivity, product quality and energy and material intensity rather than on inputs alone. It reiterates centralized party leadership as the institutional guarantee and keeps the Five-Sphere Integrated Plan (five key elements of national development) and Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy (four goals for governance and reform) as the framework for the plan’s chapters.
  • Compared with the 14th FYP, the 15th FYP’s recommendations indicate that China will lean harder into enforcement and measurability. It emphasizes standardized rules, midterm evaluations and accountability so success is judged by productivity, quality and lower energy and material use rather than inputs. The upcoming 15th FYP should push more clearly to scale proven technologies nationwide through standards, certification, fair-competition reviews, and smarter procurement and curbing duplicative local pilots.

Implications

  • Looking ahead, the 15th FYP signals a more execution-oriented, manufacturing-first path, but delivery will be difficult. China must lift productivity while working through property sector stress and heavy local-government debt, rebuild business confidence and keep market access abroad amid tighter trade and technology controls. Demographics, uneven household demand and the costs of the green transition add pressure, as do the trade-offs between tighter security and open, competitive markets. Success will hinge on clear standards, credible mid-course corrections and the ability to scale proven technologies nationwide without starving private firms of capital or crowding out innovation.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in China as they occur. If you have any comments or questions, please contact BGA Adviser Eric Wang at ewang@bowergroupasia.com or Account Manager Sam Overholt at soverholt@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA China Team

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Advisor

Eric has over two decades’ experience in government affairs and public relations and currently serves as firm partner and managing director of Yuan Associates. He has worked with more than 80 clients in manufacturing, agriculture and food, consumer goods and service industries. Eric joined Yuan Associates in 2005 and become a partner and managing director in 2011. As managing director, he is responsible for comprehensive government affairs service for and management of clients. As a partner his responsibilities include overseeing the firm’s daily overall operations. Prior to joining Yuan Associates, Eric worked as an account manager for Euan Barty Associates ... Read More