The BGA Indonesia Team, led by Managing Director Douglas Ramage, wrote an update to clients on the 2024 general election in Indonesia.

Context

  • That day, the electorate will elect 21,000 representatives to legislative seats at the national and local levels.
  • The elections are expected to be free, fair and legitimate, leading to a peaceful transfer of power in October 2024.

Significance

  • A radical departure from President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s approach to business is highly unlikely after 2024. Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo, Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan have consistently dominated credible surveys for the past two years, and one of them will emerge as Indonesia’s next president.
  • Jokowi, far from being a lame duck, has maintained an approval rating above 70 percent and relative discipline in his big tent Cabinet. His endorsement will be critical for any candidate and coalition hoping to win, and he has tacitly supported two of the three major candidates: Ganjar and Prabowo.

Implications

  • Clients can expect a stable operating environment during election season and should plan to conduct business as usual with the government. Policymakers will likely refrain from making strategic decisions by November 2023 at the latest.
  • Companies should hedge their bets and take full advantage of the various sessions and roundtables with different candidates and their teams that business associations will continue to host leading up to the elections.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Indonesia as they occur. If you have any questions or comments, please contact BGA Indonesia Managing Director Douglas Ramage at dramage@bowergroupasia.com.