The BGA Thailand team, led by Managing Director Teerasak “Art” Siripant, wrote an update for clients regarding the Bhumjathai Party’s sweeping victory in the February 8 Thai elections.

Context

  • The incumbent and conservative Bhumjaithai (BJT) Party has surprisingly swept Thailand’s February 8 election with a commanding win. With the previously poll-leading Progressive People’s Party (PP) coming in a distant second, Thailand appears headed for a conservative coalition government revolving around BJT and like-minded junior partners.
  • BJT relied on incumbency advantages, royalism and nationalism, along with three technocrats for campaign marketing – Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas and Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow, as the last BGA update was pointed out. On royalism, BJT may have been given a boost when Anutin and Ekniti were granted an audience with the king on the eve of election day.

Significance

  • A BJT-KT partnership now appears likely to anchor the coalition government. At issue will be whether BJT includes PT, which has suffered its worst election result since it ran for the first time in 2001.A BJT-led coalition with KT but without Pheu Thai (PT) may amount to only 270-280 MPs, an overall but tight majority for critical parliamentary votes. There has also been a lot of bad blood between BJT and PT in the recent past over personality conflicts and coalition squabbling.
  • Leaving PT in opposition with PP and DP could be problematic for BJT. A PP-DP alliance with PT would form a formidable opposition and spell trouble down the road for BJT stalwarts who have come under scrutiny for graft.

Implications

  • The policy contours and characteristics of a BJT-led government can be gleaned from the past four months when it ran a minority government. The three technocrats will lead the way on macro-policy and foreign affairs but the line ministries will be dominated by party bosses prone to graft and corruption allegations.
  • Policy performance will be mixed but the BJT-led government will be under public expectations to deliver amid economic doldrums. Because the referendum on drafting a new constitution passed handily, the conservative coalition led by BJT and KT will likely impede and delay charter change from the military era in 2017 as much as possible.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Thailand. If you have any comments or questions, please contact BGA Managing Director Teerasak “Art” Siripant at tsiripant@bowergroupasia.com or BGA Thailand Senior Adviser Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak at thitinan@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA Thailand Team

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Managing Director

Art is an intuitive leader with a strong set of relationships with Thailand’s government, business, media and civil society leaders. His network spans a diverse set of stakeholders, from farmers in rural Thailand to the top echelons of Thailand’s political leadership. Prior to joining BGA, Art spent a decade serving as the chief political advisor to the Australian ambassador to Thailand. In this role, he had a front row seat to the most significant political and economic developments in Thailand. Earlier, he served as an army intelligence officer in the Royal Thai Armed Forces. Art has played a central role ... Read More