The BGA Thailand Team led by Managing Director Teerasak Siripant wrote an update to clients on the upcoming Thailand elections in 2023 and current political uncertainties.

Context

  • Thailand’s Constitutional Court on September 30 ruled that Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has not exceeded the eight-year limit on his tenure as premier. Prayut has since resumed his official duties as of October 3, ending the five-week suspension the court imposed on his rule until it had come to a verdict.
  • The court ruled that Prayut’s tenure in office will end in 2025, giving him up to two more years as prime minister if he finishes his current term and returns as prime minister after the next election. Prayut must now decide whether he will run in the next election, which could be held later this year or by May 2023 at the latest.

Significance

  • If Prayut decides to run for another half term, his focus would shift to regaining popularity following his five-week suspension. In this scenario, Prayut would need to accelerate policies and measures that can help win votes and regain the trust of his coalition partners and party candidates.
  • The next general election will likely occur in early 2023 after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Bangkok concludes in November. According to the Election Commission, Thailand’s next general election will be held by May 7, 2023, at the latest, if Prayut completes his full term on March 24, 2023.

Implications

  • Businesses should watch for a potential Cabinet reshuffle in the lead-up to the general election, which could be a signpost for Prayut’s intention to run. While Prayut’s resumption of office signals a return to the status quo, his potential withdrawal from the political arena and lack of a replacement could herald a new era of Thai politics.
  • Companies can expect Thailand’s bureaucrats will continue to serve as the backbone in driving the outcomes of flagship policies and frameworks amid political uncertainty. New and sensitive projects could be put on hold for consideration after the election, but business operations should remain unaffected.

BGA will continue to keep you updated on developments in Thailand as they occur. If you have any comments or questions, please contact BGA Thailand Managing Director Teerasak Siripant at tsiripant@bowergroupasia.com.

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Managing Director

Art is an intuitive leader with a strong set of relationships with Thailand’s government, business, media and civil society leaders. His network spans a diverse set of stakeholders, from farmers in rural Thailand to the top echelons of Thailand’s political leadership. Prior to joining BGA, Art spent a decade serving as the chief political advisor to the Australian ambassador to Thailand. In this role, he had a front row seat to the most significant political and economic developments in Thailand. Earlier, he served as an army intelligence officer in the Royal Thai Armed Forces. Art has played a central role ... Read More