BGA Senior Adviser Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak wrote an update on early challenges to Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul.

Context

  • Thailand’s establishment-backed coalition government appears shaky and unable to find its footing less than four months into its term, with Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul embattled amid graft scandals without clear policy directions. Following its recent election victory, the Bhumjaithai Party, along with its junior coalition partners, was supposed to herald an unprecedented period of political stability after 20 years of volatility and turmoil (see BGA update “Post-Election Thailand: A Semblance of Stability After 20 Years”). But with a crisis of government legitimacy now percolating, Anutin will come under growing pressure to revamp his Cabinet and bring in more technocrats to deliver results or face the prospect of an early exit.
  • When he entered office, Anutin was already facing two major scandals concerning the allegedly collusive and rigged Senate election from June 2024 and the “Khao Kradong” encroachment of state-owned land to the benefit of Bhumjaithai’s powerbroker Newin Chidchob and his cronies. Being in power enabled the prime minister and his associates to exert influence over oversight agencies to delay and stymie the deliberations of these two cases. Had he been able to govern with some policy thrust at the outset, it might have allowed his government to move forward and leave past scandals behind.
  • Instead, more controversies have emerged without deliverables. The government mishandled petrol price hikes necessitated by the Middle East conflicts, allegedly handing a windfall to a government-linked owner of petrol stations. To alleviate hardships from the energy crisis, a THB 400 billion ($12 billion) relief package was promulgated through a Cabinet decree carrying a parliamentary majority. Half of the borrowing went to consumer subsidy, and the other half was earmarked for investments toward energy transition. After the opposition People’s Party challenged the package as misdirected and misspent at the expense of fiscal discipline, the Constitutional Court is set to rule whether it is unconstitutional. Even under the unlikely scenario that the establishment-backed court rules against the borrowing, the Anutin government is expected to continue in office despite a major credibility loss.

Significance

  • Other graft allegations will further undermine government legitimacy. One is a THB 1.6 billion ($48 million) artificial intelligence (AI) scheme that was rammed through with questionable terms of reference, technical specifications and procurement process. It is an initiative of the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society, headed by Chaichanok Chidchob, Newin’s son and one of eight so-called “nepo babies” — scions of powerful political figures behind coalition parties. Chaichanok, who proudly declared the names of his parents upon entering Parliament, is seen as a future Bhumjaithai leader. His political standing has weakened partly as a result of this controversial project.
  • Yet the most egregious and damning may be the exam-rigging scandal involving bureaucratic posts for local administration. As evidence has been found, thousands of exams were tampered with in connection with systematic bribes to Interior Ministry officials totaling some THB 4.5 billion ($140 million). Building on other graft cases, the exam-rigging has caused the most salient public outrage. While many bureaucratic posts at provincial levels are paid just a few hundred dollars a month, they come with health and retirement benefits that provide family security. That the Interior Ministry’s kickbacks are so lucrative and systematic reminds the public why lower-level bureaucrats can be unqualified, inert and prone to graft.
  • The interior portfolio is traditionally the most powerful in the Cabinet because it supervises and administers departments overseeing rural governance and a centralized and entrenched bureaucratic machinery. The post of interior minister is traditionally taken by the secretary-general of the largest coalition party, but in this case, Anutin has unusually occupied both top posts. Accountability ultimately goes up to him.
  • On the policy side, the Anutin government has effectively deprioritized the “land bridge” idea and its associated Southern Economic Corridor. The mega project to link up the three airports — Suvarnabhumi, Don Meuang and U-Tapao — around the greater Bangkok metropolitan area to make a logistics hub faces delay while the contractor wants to renegotiate terms. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas has made promising proposals, such as an investment-facilitating “fast pass” to expedite approvals. Commerce Minister Suphajee Suthumpun remains active on free trade negotiations, especially with the European Union, although she seems to have lost luster as the novelty of her communication skills wears off without policy substance to fall back on.

Implications

  • To be sure, Thailand has been attracting considerable foreign direct investment in data centers and digital trade related to connectivity, while tourism receipts are steady. But policy directions remain largely uncharted because Anutin is trying to survive on a day-to-day basis, unable to come up with an outlook for Thailand’s economic future and diplomatic drive abroad. During recent parliamentary deliberations over the THB 3.8 trillion ($114 billion) budget bill with a projected deficit of 3.9 percent of GDP, Anutin delegated the government’s response to be led by Ekniti while the prime minister accompanied the king and queen on an official visit to France.
  • Despite his strong establishment credentials, Anutin appears untenable unless he makes urgent changes to shore up public support and reassure his backers that he can withstand mounting pressure. Even sections of the conservative establishment that conspired to weaken and derail Bhumjaithai’s rivals, including the judiciary and royalist elements of civil society, have turned against the Anutin government and its lengthening corruption accusations. One major change could be a Cabinet reshuffle, but it would test Anutin’s mettle. The real powerbroker is Newin.
  • Changing the Cabinet lineup to entice technocrats and policy experts to enter the fray, let alone to empower them to get the economy moving, will be Anutin’s most daunting task in the near term. The alternative of accumulating corruption controversies in the absence of policy results will likely lead to intensifying public disenchantment. Without government responsiveness and with a coalition majority in Parliament, public outcry may spill over into street protests. Despite circulating rumors that a new prime minister is in the offing, Anutin’s premiership remains his to keep as long as he can impose preferences vis-à-vis Bhumjaithai’s big boss and reach an understanding with his backers behind the scenes.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Thailand. If you have comments or questions, please contact BGA Senior Adviser Thitinan Pongsudhirak at thitinan@bowergroupasia.com or BGA Thailand Managing Director Teerasak “Art” Siripant at tsiripant@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA Thailand Team

A small ginko leaf

Senior Advisor

Thitinan is a renowned scholar, journalist and expert in international relations and domestic politics across Asia. He has spent more than three decades analyzing and advising on Thailand and the region’s political economy, geopolitics and policy. He helps BGA and clients understand in-depth the global, regional and domestic issues that affect business.  Thitinan is a professor of international relations and international political economy at Bangkok-based Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies. He has lectured widely at local and international universities, military colleges and international organizations on political and ... Read More