The BGA Australia Team led by Managing Director Michael “Mick” McNeill, wrote an update to clients on Australia’s Treasurer’s recent visit to Washington. 
 

Context 

  • The Australian government is engaged in scenario planning for after the U.S. election, in areas such as trade, financial markets, energy and climate policy, and defense (including the Australia, United Kingdom, United States partnership, or AUKUS). While analysts are cautiously optimistic the AUKUS submarine partnership will continue under Harris or Trump, much will depend on the capacity of the U.S. industrial base. Under Trump, work might be required to carve out Australia from increased tariffs and his election might create implications for Australia’s cooperation with the United States on clean energy.  
  • Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that delegates were focused on political uncertainty in the United States following the elections on November 5 “and what that might mean for future policies coming out of this town with relevance for all of us around the world.” Chalmers took the opportunity to meet with advisers to the two presidential candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. 
     

Significance 

  • In Washington, Chalmers reiterated support for market structures that encourage global producers to operate with higher environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards. The Australian government has added nickel to its Critical Minerals List and has worked with the Biden administration to develop a pricing structure that reflects nickel produced to high ESG standards. 
  • On returning to Australia, Treasurer Chalmers warned of replacing “free and fair trade” with “fragmentation, division and suspicion” in an op-ed in The Australian Financial Review. Chalmers nevertheless acknowledged economic and security interests are increasingly aligned and pointed to his government’s Future Made in Australia agenda (widely seen as the Australian government’s version of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act). 
     

Implications 

  • The outcome of the U.S. elections will impact Australia’s political dynamics, particularly on the key issue of energy policy. Trump is in favor of boosting U.S. gas production and liquid natural gas (LNG) exports with Harris under pressure to follow suit.  In Australia, the Labor government is seeking to navigate the demands of its progressive and outer suburban constituencies while the Peter Dutton opposition is framing itself as the “pro-gas” option. Nearly 90 percent of Australia’s LNG exports go to Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan. 
  • A Trump administration would be expected to downgrade the role of climate change in the Australia-U.S. alliance. In May 2023, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and President Joe Biden declared climate and energy the third pillar of the Australia-U.S. alliance, joining defense and economic co-operation. Work to promote supply chain cooperation in the areas of clean energy and critical minerals has commenced under the Australia-United States Climate, Critical Minerals and Clean Energy Transformation Compact, as well as the ministerial-level Australia-United States Taskforce on Critical Minerals.  

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Australia as they occur. If you have any comments or questions, please contact BGA Australia Managing Director Michael “Mick” McNeill at mmcneill@bowergroupasia.com. 

Best regards, 

BGA Australia Team 

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Managing Director

Mick is a highly-experienced government relations expert and trusted advisor on consensus building, conflict resolution and legislative developments. He has played an integral role in helping parties achieve desired outcomes in areas of national security, health policy, foreign policy and reputational crisis management, as well as media relations, communications campaigns, immigration and human rights. Mick has two decades’ experience working with government as a media analyst, political adviser and NGO advocacy manager. After a stint serving as an adviser to an Australian senator, Mick took on the role of the locally engaged senior political specialist at the U.S. Embassy in ... Read More