BGA’s India team, led by Managing Director Ratan Shrivastava, wrote a piece on the new wave of COVID-19 cases brought on by the omicron variant. The update addressed the impact of rising cases on India and implications for clients.

Context

  • The third wave of the COVID-19 omicron variant continues to rage throughout India. The first week of January marked the fastest weekly increase in infections recorded to date since the start of the pandemic.
  • The rapid spread is coming with continued regional variation within India. While the daily positivity rate has shot up overall, there are also select states and union territories that the central government has named as “states of concern.”

Significance

  • The spike in cases from the highly transmissible omicron variant has prompted the national and local governments to impose an array of restrictions and preventative measures.
  • The milder nature of the variant and India’s more widely immunized population have led to fewer hospitalizations. This suggests the surge may peak by early February and cases may drop as sharply as they rose.

Implications

  • Businesses should expect limited disruptions from workforce constraints that will likely register a slight dip in India’s economic growth projections. There could also be differential effects on certain sectors, including travel and tourism or telecommunications where the government has moved to ease some movement due to restrictions.
  • Governments at all levels are taking steps to mitigate the omicron’s toll through a sustained vaccination campaign and by ensuring the uninterrupted provision of essential services.

BGA will continue to keep you updated on developments in India as they occur. If you have any questions or comments, please contact BGA India Managing Director Ratan Shrivastava.

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