The BGA Korea Team, led by Managing Director B.J. KThe BGA Korea Team, led by Managing Director B.J. Kim, wrote an update to clients on President Yoon Suk-yeol’s declaration of martial law.

Context

  • Korean President Yoon declared martial law in the evening of December 3 only to have his order struck down hours later by the opposition-controlled National Assembly amid intense public pressure. The reversal demonstrates the resilience of Korea’s democracy and highlights the power of popular sovereignty that has characterized the county’s political tradition over the past four decades.
  • Yoon blamed the National Assembly — in which the opposition maintains a supermajority — for forcing his hand in declaring martial law. The president decried the National Assembly impeachment of judges, prosecutors and key government officials; its removal of key items in the 2025 budget bill; and its derailing of other legislation. He claimed martial law was necessary to root out anti-state forces within the National Assembly who sympathize with North Korea and protect Korea’s constitutional democracy.

Significance

  • The National Assembly voted unanimously to lift martial law in the early morning of December 4. Peaceful protesters swarmed the National Assembly building during the several hours in which martial law was in effect, demanding a return to normalcy. With the Cabinet’s consent, Yoon lifted his order around 4:30 a.m. By late morning, the streets of Seoul appeared normal, seemingly unaffected by what happened the night before.
  • With less than two-and-a-half years remaining in his nonrenewable term, Yoon appears to be the author of his own political demise. His decision to declare martial law despite potentially failing to meet the constitutional threshold to do so could lead to questions about the soundness of his judgement. Some members of his People Power Party seem to have turned away from him, and he now faces impeachment motions at the National Assembly. All of his Cabinet members have submitted their resignation to the prime minister, which will likely result in an unprecedented implosion of presidential power. Recent polls show Yoon’s approval rating is below 20 percent. His wife is also the target of investigation for alleged wrongdoing.

Implications

  • Yoon’s declaration will likely have only limited business and economic impacts, with the exception of a weakened Korean won, but it could result in his impeachment and an abbreviated presidential term. The opposition Democratic Party will continue to direct economic policy. The previous administration of Democratic President Moon Jae-in was known to be reasonably business friendly. The current leader of the party and former governor of Gyeonggi province, Lee Jae-myung, is considered to be even more accommodating.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Korea as they occur. If you have any comments or questions, please contact BGA Korea Managing Director B.J. Kim at bjkim@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA Korea Team

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Managing Director

B.J. supports BGA clients on the ground in Korea, advising them on stakeholder engagement and larger government affairs and public policy matters in Seoul. A former Korean diplomat, B.J. has advised international firms on political-economic and policy-regulatory affairs since 2003, offering monitoring and analytical services on legislative, regulatory and political issues. He also has offered companies hands-on support in their engagement in Korea. Prior to his career in consulting, B.J. was a diplomat serving two of Korea’s trade ministers as policy counselor and special assistant, developing international economic policies and public communications strategies on export and investment promotion. He has ... Read More