The BGA New Zealand team, led by Senior Adviser Penny Tucker, wrote an update to clients on New Zealand’s upcoming election.

Context

  • New Zealand’s Labour government is increasingly unlikely to remain in power after the October 14 general election. This will be the first election since former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, who led the Labour Party, stepped down in January.
  • Polling indicates that a center-right National Party-ACT coalition will form the next government; however, the ruling coalition may be fragile regardless of which party wins. Many commentators expect the far-right and now somewhat conspiracy-driven New Zealand First Party to play its traditional kingmaker role with just a few seats.

Significance

  • Tax policy and banking reforms continue to dominate media coverage due to concerns of a looming recession and political interests capturing the central bank. The cost of living has been this election cycle’s media buzzword, and the ease of borrowing is under a high degree of scrutiny following recent Labour government changes.
  • Data protection and privacy are also issues bubbling underneath the more high-profile election issues. This is a complex area, but a significant amount of work is being done within the bureaucracy to accord more structure to the quickly evolving development, including with respect to the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity.

Implications

  • Companies can expect policy continuity from either coalition. Tamping down inflation, maintaining a pro-business investment climate and guiding the country’s economic recovery will continue to be key priorities.
  • For companies doing business in New Zealand or with plans to enter the market, key issues of the election include tax, regulation and immigration. Additionally, National is determined to make it easier for foreign companies to enter the market, but policy shifts in this area are unlikely to be immediate or represent a paradigm shift.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in New Zealand as they occur. If you have any comments or questions, please contact BGA Senior Adviser Penny Tucker, who is based in Auckland, New Zealand. If you have a specific question about elements of policy or need clarification on how a particular issue has fared during detailed coalition negotiations after the election, please reach out to Penny.

Best regards, BGA New Zealand Team

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