The BGA Pakistan Team, led by Senior Adviser Aniq Zafar, wrote an update to clients on Pakistan’s response to India’s precision military strikes.

Context

  • India conducted missile strikes on civilian sites in Pakistan in the early hours of May 7, triggering fears of further military escalation. The Indian air force, using standoff weapons from within its own airspace, targeted nine locations inside Pakistan, including in Azad Jammu and Kashmir and mainland Pakistan. The attack resulted in 26 civilian deaths and 46 injuries. Pakistan claims it shot down five Indian air force jets in Indian territory. India, which said the strikes targeted terrorist camps and were non-escalatory in nature, warned that it has identified more potential targets if Pakistan retaliates.
  • Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called the attacks “blatant acts of war” and vowed to retaliate against Indian aggression. Tensions have been rising between the two neighboring countries since the militant attack on tourists in Pahalgam — in Indian-administered Kashmir — that resulted in 26 deaths. Pakistan has vehemently denied involvement in that attack. The situation remains volatile, with both nuclear-armed countries capable of escalation. Global leaders have called for restraint, and the United Nations secretary-general has urged both sides to avoid further military action.

Significance

  • India launched cross-border strikes targeting alleged terrorist camps inside Pakistan. The Pakistani military claims that six nonmilitary locations were targeted in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir and Pakistan’s most populous province of Punjab. For its part, India claims that these sites were used to host and train terrorists responsible for the earlier attack in Pahalgam. Both countries imposed diplomatic sanctions on each other following the strikes. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi threatened to block Pakistan’s water supply and has suspended the Indus Water Treaty.
  • Pakistan claimed that it shot down at least five Indian fighter planes in defense. An exchange of intense shelling and heavy gunfire took place across the Line of Control — the de facto border between the two countries. Pakistan and India both confirmed that Indian air force fighters did not cross over into Pakistan, but this has not been confirmed independently.

Implications

  • The risk of escalation is high due to the severity of India’s attack. Pakistan’s military has vowed to retaliate at a time and manner of its choosing. While the situation remains fluid, further developments hinge on Pakistan’s response and its magnitude. At the time of reporting, the National Security Committee, the country’s highest decision-making body, was in session to deliberate next steps. BGA’s assessment is that Pakistan will very likely respond to the strikes.
  • Global leaders have warned of the consequences if tensions do not ease between the two nuclear-armed states. The United States, United Kingdom, Russia and China urged for deescalation in the hours after the strikes. The U.N. secretary-general has advised both countries to exercise maximum military restraint.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Pakistan as they occur. If you have any comments or questions, please contact BGA Pakistan Senior Adviser Aniq Zafar at azafar@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA Pakistan Team

A small ginko leaf

Senior Advisor

Aniq is one of Pakistan’s most experienced business and public relations advisors, maintaining networks throughout the country’s public and private sectors, civil society and diplomatic circles. As a former journalist, Aniq also has strong relationships in the vibrant and rapidly expanding domestic media environment. Prior to joining BGA, Aniq worked with global clients across sectors on developing communication strategies, crisis communication, understanding regulatory frameworks and political risk assessment. He advised multinational clients from sectors including telecommunications, fast moving consumer goods, tobacco, agriculture, infrastructure, airlines and energy, as well as international development organizations. In the public sector, Aniq advised Pakistan’s Federal ... Read More