The BGA Taiwan Team, led by Senior Adviser Rupert Hammond-Chambers, wrote an update to clients on Taiwan’s election.

Context

  • Taiwan elected Lai Ching-te as the next president, ensuring his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) maintains continuity after eight years of rule under Tsai Ing-wen. Lai won 40.1 percent of the vote to narrowly defeat Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) (33.5 percent) and Ko Wen-je of the newly formed Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) (26.5 percent) in a fierce three-way election.
  • No political party secured an outright majority in the concurrently held legislative election. The DPP won 51 seats (10 fewer than in 2020), the KMT won 52 seats (an increase of 15 from 2020) and the TPP secured eight seats, positioning itself as the key minority party.

Significance

  • The DPP and KMT must now consider alliances with the TPP, the third-largest party, to effectively navigate the political landscape. The TPP seeks to break the two-party DPP/KMT system, offering greater choice and a political menu free of legacy positions.
  • The U.S. relationship with Taiwan is expected to remain stable, and China will likely return to its heightened gray zone activities. The United States and Taiwan will seek to counter China and mitigate supply chain risks through ongoing arms sales and collaboration in the high-tech and semiconductor sectors.

Implications

  • Lai’s victory heralds policy continuity regarding Taiwan’s position on cross-strait relations, which was a key issue in the election. Lai urged Beijing to engage in dialogue with his administration on the basis of dignity and parity, the position of outgoing President Tsai.
  • Businesses should expect Taiwan’s increased engagement with like-minded democracies and a continued skepticism of China. China will likely consider further economic coercion to signal its displeasure with Lai’s election.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Taiwan as they occur. If you have comments or questions, please contact BGA Taiwan Senior Adviser Rupert Hammond-Chambers at rupertjhc@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA Taiwan Team

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Senior Advisor

Rupert is an expert on Taiwanese political and economic issues and additionally brings a special focus on defense and security within BGA. Rupert concurrently leads the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council, where he was elected vice president in 1998 and president in 2000. Prior to 1994, he served as an associate for development at the Center for Security Policy, a defense and foreign policy think tank in Washington, D.C. Rupert is a member of the board of The Project 2049 Institute. He is also a trustee of Fettes College and is a member of the National Committee on United States-China Relations. Rupert ... Read More