BGA Thailand Senior Adviser Thitinan Pongsudhirak wrote an update to clients on Thailand’s no-confidence debate.

Context

  • Despite anticipated theatrics and antics, Thailand’s upcoming no-confidence debate March 24-26 is unlikely to upend the coalition government of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who leads the Pheu Thai (For Thais) Party with the backing of her formerly exiled father, Thaksin Shinawatra. Yet the parliamentary scrutiny of Paetongtarn’s six months in office by the opposition will feature allegations of corruption and graft, policy mismanagement and overall misrule. Although a government collapse and a snap election are not in the cards, the vote at the end of the debate could prove damaging to Paetongtarn’s credibility, expose Thaksin’s political role, sow discord among coalition members and lead to a consequent cabinet reshuffle.
  • The lead-up to the no-confidence motion is marked by procedural gamesmanship. The opposition Prachachon (People’s) Party wanted to explicitly name Thaksin as a principal target. Overshadowing his daughter-prime minister, Thaksin has been in premier mode, delivering stump speeches around the country and policy outlooks at major conferences in Bangkok. By all intents and purposes, he runs the country from behind in view of his old team from two decades ago surrounding Paetongtarn. Because such a direct involvement would violate the constitution, Thaksin pretends otherwise, referring to Paetongtarn perfunctorily as government leader.
     

Significance

  • Another procedural haggle concerned the allotted time for all sides, excluding objections and protests during the debate. The opposition has now been assigned 28 hours, the government seven hours, with two hours reserved for the president of the 500-member Parliament to keep order and direct the flow of speakers. This no-confidence exercise will allow voice and venting of pent-up frustrations over a wide range of issues from economic doldrums to governance irregularities and the judicial dissolution last year of Prachachon precursor Move Forward Party, so tempers are expected to flare, and proceedings could spill over into a fourth day for final voting.
  • The opposition’s strategy will be to beam a laser focus on Paetongtarn for being unqualified and unfit for office, undermining Thailand’s international reputation, harboring vested interests and dishonesty, broadly mismanaging the country and allowing corruption and graft to fester. In addition, Paetongtarn is alleged to have appointed questionable individuals to key posts and enabled family members — namely Thaksin — to exert undue influence and authority. While he will not be called out by name, Thaksin looms large over the censure debate.


Implications

  • The singular focus on Paetongtarn is intended to put pressure on her as a novice politician and unseasoned government leader doing her father’s bidding. Because she is projected to address a range of specific issues of mismanagement, graft and Thaksin’s role, Paetongtarn is expected to shift pressure and share the burden of being grilled with coalition partners, potentially causing rifts among them.
  • Business should rest assured in this no-confidence debate that government stability and continuity can be expected despite noises from constant political squabbling. What bears watching are policy domains and regulatory settings that are beset with graft and conflicts of interest and therefore merit careful navigation, while keeping in mind other areas that are less politicized and more routinized for foreign business interests and operations. BGA will continue to keep you abreast of consequential developments with timely datapoints and analysis.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Thailand as they occur. If you have any comments or questions, please contact BGA Senior Adviser Thitinan Pongsudhirak at thitinan@bowergroupasia.com and BGA Thailand Managing Director Teresa “Art” Siripant at tsiripant@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA Thailand Team

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Senior Advisor

Thitinan is a renowned scholar, journalist and expert in international relations and domestic politics across Asia. He has spent more than three decades analyzing and advising on Thailand and the region’s political economy, geopolitics and policy. He helps BGA and clients understand in-depth the global, regional and domestic issues that affect business.  Thitinan is a professor of international relations and international political economy at Bangkok-based Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies. He has lectured widely at local and international universities, military colleges and international organizations on political and ... Read More