BGA’s teams across key markets collaborated on a cross-border client update regarding Russia’s Ukraine invasion and why it matters for companies in the Indo-Pacific. The update examined some major upcoming signposts and implications for clients, with ground insights from BGA’s teams across the region. Below are a few of the topline insights from the introduction of the update:

Context

  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked concerns across countries and companies alike as they seek to manage the fallout and discern what lies ahead. Asia is no exception, both as a hub of economic activity and also the locus of influential direct and indirect players, be it China and its closer ties to Moscow which have been in the headlines, or others like Vietnam or India that have defense ties with Moscow but are also seeking to balance this with other alignments.

Significance

  • There have already been effects on areas such as economics, defense postures and political alignments that reveal that Asia’s responses are as diverse as the region itself. These United States has led an effort on its own and with allies and partners to impose costs on Russia, while Moscow has been reaching out to select Indo-Pacific countries to limit potential fallout. Countries which are influential in their own right such as Singapore, Japan, Australia, Taiwan and Indonesia, have also weighed in on consequential questions such as international norms, deterrence and the effects on economic stability.

Implications

  • There are several inflection points that companies should watch in the coming weeks. These include the effects on agricultural and energy prices; the extent to which influential countries in Northeast, South and Southeast Asia impose costs on Moscow economically and diplomatically; and decisions with ripple effects for geopolitics such as the Quad’s response or China’s signaling on its evolving approach to Sino-Russian ties.
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