The BGA Philippines Team, led by Managing Director Victor Andres Manhit, wrote an update to clients on the arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.

Context

  • Former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte was arrested March 11 at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport shortly after arriving from Hong Kong. His arrest was carried out in response to a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged crimes against humanity linked to his controversial “war on drugs” during his 2016-2022 presidential term. Duterte is the first former Philippine head of state to be arrested under the authority of an international tribunal. Duterte was flown in a chartered plane to The Hague in the Netherlands on the same day.
  • President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is expected to maintain a strong position of power until the end of his current term in 2028, especially amid the pending trial of Duterte’s daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, who was impeached February 5 on charges of corruption and plotting to assassinate Marcos. The political landscape could shift depending on the trial’s outcome and the public’s response.


Significance

  • Duterte’s family and allies criticized the arrest as “unlawful,” arguing it was invalid because the Philippines withdrew from the ICC in 2019. The ICC retains jurisdiction over alleged crimes committed in the Philippines prior to its withdrawal from the ICC in 2019. On such grounds, the ICC maintains that it can still prosecute crimes that occurred while the country was a member.
  • Duterte’s arrest highlights the Philippines’ commitment to respecting international law and upholding the rule of law within the country. This demonstrates that even powerful figures are not exempt from accountability under international jurisdiction. At the same time, authorities have highlighted the importance of justice and accountability for alleged crimes against humanity, counterweighing a culture of impunity in the Philippines and reinforcing the principle that no one is above the law.

Implications

  • Political stability is anticipated in the Philippines. Widespread violence is unlikely because Duterte is no longer as popular as he was during his presidency, and he lacks military support at this time. While his followers remain influential on social media, particularly through the proliferation of so-called “troll armies,” they face limitations in mobilizing large-scale protests or uprisings, even in Mindanao, the Duterte family’s stronghold. The most Duterte can do is stir up activism and loyalty among his supporters.
  • Duterte’s arrest will likely have only a minimal impact on the country’s financial markets and overall economic stability. With no immediate disruptions to economic policies or business operations, the status quo will likely be maintained. The government’s emphasis on legal due process and the adherence to human rights principles could bolster the country’s global reputation and reassure international partners and institutions of its commitment to democratic governance.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in the Philippines as they occur. If you have any comments or questions, please contact BGA Philippines Managing Director Victor Andres “Dindo” Manhit at vmanhit@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA Philippines Team

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Managing Director

Dindo is recognized as one of Manila’s most well-connected and savvy advisors on developments in government and business in the Philippines. Concurrent to his role as managing director for BGA’s operations in the Philippines, he is also the founder and managing director of the Stratbase Group and president of its policy think tank, the Albert del Rosario Institute for Strategic and International Studies. Since 1991, Dindo has served as a member of the faculty and is the former chair of the Political Science Department and a senior fellow of the La Salle Institute of Governance at the De La Salle ... Read More