The BGA India Team, led by Managing Director Ratan Shrivastava, wrote an update on the country’s ongoing general election.

Context

  • India’s general election for the 18th Lok Sabha, the country’s lower house, is currently underway in seven phases from April 19 to June 1, with results expected June 4. This will be the largest democratic exercise in history, with more than 2,600 political parties competing for 543 seats in the Lok Sabha and 986.8 million voters registered to cast their vote. In addition, legislative assembly elections are being held simultaneously in four Indian states: Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim.

  • The main contenders for the ongoing general election are the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), which includes the Indian National Congress and 40 other political parties. Pre-poll surveys indicate that the BJP-led alliance under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi could return to power for a third term.

Significance

  • Amid the elections, ongoing discourse on welfarism and affirmative action — including job security, price guarantees for agricultural goods and higher insurance benefits — has led to heightened polarization and ideological divides among political parties and voters.

  • The changing demographics, gender dynamics, economic situation and climate are expected to lead to a paradigm shift in voting patterns amid the ongoing elections.

    • With 210 million young voters (aged 18-29) comprising 22 percent of the entire electorate, the youth are likely to play a crucial role in the electoral outcomes. Youth-centric initiatives are addressing the concerns of the younger demography and will likely influence voting preferences.

      A significant shift occurred in the 2019 general election when female voter turnout exceeded the male turnout for the first time, highlighting gender as an important factor in shaping electoral outcomes. This trend could continue as the male-female turnout remains close in the first two phases in 2024.
    • A declining voting trend in urban regions over the past few elections could continue, particularly in metropolitan cities such as Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai and Mumbai, compared to Tier II and III cities and rural areas. Initiatives aimed at empowering the emerging middle class and aspirational groups could also affect voting outcomes in Tier II and Tier III urban cities.

Implications

  • Electoral success for the BJP could mean policy continuity with an enhanced focus on economic reforms aimed at improving the ease of doing business and attracting foreign investment. The government could continue to push for infrastructure development, particularly in the digital, renewable energy and transportation sectors.

  • The government’s dedication to the electoral process and declaration of the model code of conduct (from March 16 to June 4) has caused a temporary pause in policy reforms and reduced administrative bandwidth. Major investment announcements and economic activity have also slowed, as investors anticipate the election results.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in India. If you have questions or comments, please contact BGA India Managing Director Ratan Shrivastava at ratan@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA India Team

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Managing Director

Ratan is a senior executive and management consulting professional who has a proven track record in government, consulting and industry across India and Southeast Asia, with a wide network across stakeholders. He has been instrumental in developing and implementing growth strategies for both the public and private sector and has led diverse teams to secure new market opportunities. Prior to joining BGA, Ratan was at KPMG India where he helped the integration of the small and medium industry clusters, with the domestic and global aerospace, defense and space supply chains. He also served as an advisor at the Federation of ... Read More