The BGA Indonesia Team, led by Managing Director Douglas Ramage, wrote an update to clients on President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s state address and budget presentation.

Context

  • Jokowi on August 16 delivered his state address during a joint session of Parliament and presented the government’s 2024 budget in the House of Representatives’ first plenary of the parliamentary year. The president’s annual speech typically outlines the government’s high-level priorities; the budget proposal, though subject to further House deliberations, offers insight into senior officials’ plans for the upcoming year.
  • The government’s budget proposal is built upon an optimistic growth assumption. The economy is forecast to grow 5.3 percent, and the inflation rate is projected at 2.8 percent.

Significance

  • The central premise of Jokowi’s address was that investing in the development of downstream natural resource industries and human resources would harness Indonesia’s demographic advantages and heightened international stature. The president suggested Indonesia could be one of the world’s five largest economies by 2045 if it follows this path.
  • Jokowi dedicated less attention to his plans for human development. Instead, he noted his administration’s achievements and objectives such as reducing stunting, elevating the country’s Human Development Index and enhancing formal and vocational education.
  • The president’s priorities for government expenditure are identical to those of last year. These include human and infrastructure development, extreme poverty eradication, inflation reduction and bureaucratic reform.

Implications

  • Jokowi said downstreaming, supported by technology transfers and renewable energy development, has the potential to double Indonesia’s per capita gross domestic product within a decade and triple it within 15 years. While acknowledging that this may pressure raw commodity exporters and government revenues in the short term, he stressed that “Indonesia must become a country capable of processing its [natural] resources, providing added value and bringing prosperity to its people.” Citing the successes of the nickel ore export ban, he called for the policy’s consistent application to commodities such as copper, bauxite, palm oil and seaweed.
  • The government expects a 12.9 percent rise in state revenues, supported by a noteworthy 14.2 percent increase in tax revenue. The continuation of tax reforms that were implemented in recent years is expected to drive the uptick in tax revenue. The government hopes to offer unspecified tax incentives to stimulate economic activity.
  • The government’s proposed expenditures closely resemble those of this year, albeit with budget increases across the board. This mirrors heightened optimism following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and could reflect an effort to reinforce sociopolitical stability ahead of next year’s elections.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Indonesia as they occur. If you have any questions or comments, please contact BGA Indonesia Managing Director Douglas Ramage at dramage@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA Indonesia Team