The BGA Indonesia Team, led by Managing Director Douglas Ramage, wrote an update to clients on Indonesia’s upcoming presidential election.

Context

  • All presidential tickets for Indonesia’s February 24, 2024, election are now confirmed and registered. Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan have each paired with vice presidential candidates who uniquely contribute to their electability.
  • In October, the Constitutional Court, whose then-chief was Jokowi’s brother-in-law, ruled that regional leaders under 40 are allowed to run in presidential elections, paving the way for the president’s 36-year-old son to join Prabowo’s ticket just a week later. This ruling has been widely criticized by Indonesia’s media and leading Indonesian commentators as deeply controversial.

Significance

  • Jokowi has actively planned a kingmaker role, seeking to secure his legacy and influence beyond his presidency. Proximity to Jokowi boosts candidates’ appeal given his policies’ popularity and his consistently high approval rating.
  • No candidate is set to win a majority in the first round of voting, making a runoff on June 26, 2024, almost inevitable. A significant number of voters are likely to shift between Prabowo and Ganjas, with Anies possibly standing to benefit from this tension.

Implications

  • Differences in leadership styles and visions among candidates have come to the fore, but they all align with Jokowi’s approach to business and investment.
  • Companies should note potential changes in the timing and scope of specific investment initiatives in the political year. For instance, aspects of the energy transition and development of the new capital city may undergo changes under the new administration; in contrast, the financial and health sectors have clear and relatively stable directions.

We will continue to keep you updated on developments in Indonesia as they occur. If you have any questions or comments, please contact BGA Indonesia Managing Director Douglas Ramage at dramage@bowergroupasia.com.

Best regards,

BGA Indonesia Team

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Managing Director

Doug is the founding managing director of BowerGroupAsia Indonesia in Jakarta. He is one of the foremost experts on Indonesia’s political economy, business and regulatory affairs, with over 30 years’ experience living and working in the country. In addition to his role at BGA, Doug serves as chair of the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Indonesia, the country’s largest international business association.  Doug works closely with multinational companies and the government to find solutions to policies that impact Indonesia’s competitiveness, foreign investment opportunities and market access. He is skilled at leading teams to develop commercially strategic advocacy efforts that ... Read More